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Jets Journal

Jane McManus of The Journal News on the Jets.

The numbers say Clemens

August
4

Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders has looked at the statistics, and he says Kellen Clemens will be a better pick.

“We think he’s going to be a good NFL quarterback,” Barnwell said.

The Jets have a competition this training camp in Cortland between Clemens, a fourth-year pro who started eight Jets games in 2007, and rookie Mark Sanchez, who has an eye-popping $28 million in guarantees and represents the Jets long-term hopes.

This morning, the Newark Star-Ledger’s Manish Mehta reports that Clemens is again practicing with the first team. To Barnwell, that makes sense.

Barnwell, a number cruncher who majored in communications, said there are only two relevant numbers when you are looking at whether a QB who goes in the top two rounds of the NFL draft will become a good starter.

The first number is career starts as a collegian, and the second is completion percentage. Clemens had a 61 percent completion percentage in 32 games, which Barnwell said gives him the potential to be in the top 10 NFL quarterbacks in his peak season.

Sanchez had a 64 percent completion percentage, but in just 16 games.

He makes the statistical comparison to Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers, but said they both grade higher because of 22 games started.

As for Clemens’ lackluster string of eight starts, Barnwell said the number of games is too small to statistically gauge Clemens’ potential. He said there are other QBs, such as Peyton Manning, who would have looked mediocre if judged on their first eight games as well.

As a few columnists have noted, Sanchez has the momentum and if there is a tie will likely get the nod. The danger in that is if he struggles in his first games. Sanchez will lose his golden aura, and Clemens will be on the sideline with a contract quickly running out.

Forcing an early start for the green Sanchez could do more damage than disappointing fans who want to see their first-rounder immediately contribute.

Anyway, the numbers according to Football Outsiders would vote for Clemens.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, August 4th, 2009 at 10:05 am by Jane McManus. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
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12 Responses to “The numbers say Clemens”

  1. Miloslav Mecir

    How many times does he have to be told, “Kellon..YOU ARE A BACK UP, YOU ARE 2ND STRING”. How many fashion lay-outs has Clemens done in GQ?How many Super Model girl friends has he had? How many night clubs has he been spotted at? The number to all these questions, is the same number of games he will start as long as “Broadway” Sanchez still rides in NY

  2. Stats Say Kellen Clemens is a Keeper

    [...] Jane McManus talked to a football statistical expert who believes Kellen Clemens will develop into a quality pro quarterback. [...]

  3. Stats Say Kellen Clemens is a Keeper « wire2

    [...] Jane McManus talked to a football statistical expert who believes Kellen Clemens will develop into a quality pro quarterback. [...]

  4. Link: Football Outsider Bill Barnwell Likes Clemens for 2009 | JetsVine

    [...] friend Jane McManus had a very interesting discussion with Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders that she posted on her blog about Kellen Clemens and Mark [...]

  5. Alex

    Sorry, Miloslav. You’re wrong. Here’s a stat for you: the year Clemens went 3-5 as starter, Clemens had 75% of the Jets’ wins that year. He did pretty good with an awful team. Give him this good O line and watch him run. I can’t understand why you and so many other Jets’ fans refuse to give the guy a chance. Keep in mind also how long Pennington took to mature, and once he did he was a pretty good QB. Just ask the Parcells and the Dolphins. Not all great QBs have to fit the Joe willy mold.

  6. David

    I knew that would bring you out, Alex.

    I’m not sure who Miloslav would pick actually as QB. I think he is making the point that, as unfortunate as it may be, hype and glamour will manage to trump substance 9 out of 10 times, whean there is a marketing dollar attached to the equation. I think Kellen could thrive, given the chance, but he will have to win this training camp competition by a clear knockout or the Jets braintrust (does that sometimes seem like an oxymoron?) won’t give it to him.

  7. Alex

    Dear David and Miloslav,

    Sorry for my knee-jerk reaction. I feel like a dunce. Miloslav’s is an excellent point, and, David, thanks for getting me to see it. Even at my age and experience, sarcasm sometimes goes undetected by me. Shows how long I’ve been living away from the city! Wouldn’t’ve happened to me when I was twenty!

  8. Erik Sec.309

    Do people remember the swiss cheese offensive line that Clemens played behind?

  9. Alex

    Erik,

    More air than cheese!

  10. Nine Unassisted: Slaton beefs up, Cutler beefs, Tribe dismantles | Newstion.com

    [...] Take a double shot of Salfino as he goes after the Verducci Effect (tied to Joba Chamberlain) and Football Outsiders (while Mark Sanchez has the early jump in the Jets QB duel, FO’s Bill Barnwell tells Jane [...]

  11. Nine Unassisted: Slaton beefs up, Cutler beefs, Tribe dismantles | Sports News Images and Videos

    [...] Take a double shot of Salfino as he goes after the Verducci Effect (tied to Joba Chamberlain) and Football Outsiders (while Mark Sanchez has the early jump in the Jets QB duel, FO’s Bill Barnwell tells Jane [...]

  12. Era Redfear

    Hi good friend, your blog utes motif is understandable and also virtuous and i enjoy it. Your blog articles are usually exceptional. Fulfill sustain these coming. Greets!!!

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About this blog
A team of Journal News reporters share their thoughts on the Jets with the Lower Hudson fans.

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About the author
Jane McManusJane McManus joined The Journal News in 1999, after working at The Daily News and Newsday. Since she's been here, she's covered everything from girls basketball to the Final Four, the U.S. Open of both golf and tennis and recreational sports from rock climbing to roller derby (which she liked so much she joined the team). READ MORE
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